When You Rely On Consumption

When you rely on consumption and people are not feeling too giddy about their futures...it's a recipe for a stagnant economy.

We're there, now! And the stock market finally realizes it.

Twenty Nine More Days

Twenty nine more days for this Congressional session. And we now have a 1,990 page bill, in addition to the three already passed in the House and at least two introduced in the Senate, on health care reform.

Any bets?

Once Again, It's About Manufacturing!

Today, Boeing, once a local company here in the Pacific Northwest, announced that is was going to build a second line of "Dreamliner" planes in South Carolina rather than in Washington. Of course, as these things go, South Carolina gave Boeing huge tax incentives and other lures to get them to their state, including very management conducive anti-union laws.

Boeing's Dreamliner has been plagued with problems. It hasn't even had one test flight, which has been delayed now for over a year. Management, in an attempt to appease it's international customers, parsed out various components of the plane to dozens of different countries, and guess what, the parts don't fit!

As this is written, talk show hosts and call in "experts" are blaming Washington state's governor and the Machinist's union for failing to give up their right to strike, as a reason for Boeing beginning to decamp from Washington. It's extremely simplistic to do that.

In an age where union strength is all but gone, we have forgotten what we, each of us, whether white collar or blue collar, owe to unions. 5 day work week, holidays off, paid medical insurance, disability insurance, unemployment benefits, minimum wages, 8 hour work day, over time pay...giving up the right to strike essentially makes a union useless.

Rather, this is about global markets, stock incentives for management, squeezing every dime out of labor, and fickle governments bending over backwards for manufacturing jobs that normally, these days, are sent overseas.

It really is time that this country wake up and realize if we continue to lose these jobs we will dig ourselves deeper into this economic hole. Plus, keeping manufacturing jobs is sustainable. Isn't it better to buy and sell goods closer to home than waste so much carbon having them shipped all over the globe?

There has been a recent discussion in my neighborhood about a bike path that would cut through a vibrant industrial area. The local businesses are concerned about the safety, of bikes zipping through their driveways. And some of the complaints from bike advocates is that the businesses use some of the land for employee parking, so they resent the cars on what they think should be "their bike path." What gets lost in this polarized discussion is the need to keep these light industrial jobs within the city, that those employees probably have to drive to their jobs since they may not make enough to live in the chi-chi condos that are edging closer and closer to the industrial area. And that real estate development with the attendant ritzy boutiques is simply not sustainable (I walked into one boutique today advertising itself as selling basic "goods," where an Oxford cloth shirt was retailing for $180! Yikes!).

If we want to revive this economy we need to pay attention to manufacturing.

Natural Gas Company Doing the Right Thing

The Catskills, habitat for some of the best drinking water in the country (that doesn't have to be filtered) is again protected. A company that owned the natural gas rights underneath the New York City watershed has decided not to drill. It's the right thing to do.

Nice to see a company in America make good choices.

What Predatory Lending Is

Read this great article, second in a series, about Washington Mutual. It defines predatory lending.

Public Disclosure and Initiatives

No one has ever denied that democracy is messy. But what really makes democracy works is information and to use the in-vogue word, transparency. In small towns in New England, decisions are still made with town meetings. Stand up and be counted. The extremely popular television show, Gilmore Girls, had a field day with the town meetings, yet everyone attended and every one talked.

Here in Washington State we are processing a wrenching debate over whether the names of people who signed petitions to challenge laws enacted by the State Legislature (known as referendums) or petitions to create laws (initiatives) can be made public. The Secretary of State said "yes," those names should be public and the US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit agreed. The US Supreme Court has temporarily blocked the release until it can have a hearing, meaning the vote will be long over.

The contentious part of this is that the names sought were attached to a petition to essentially rescind the domestic partnership law passes by the state legislature. And the groups trying to prevent the release are, they claim, afraid that they will be harassed and hounded by gay activists. Indeed, they only point to California where the release of contribution records to the initiative to ban gay marriage resulted in a community theatre director being "hounded out of a job" because he gave money in what was perceived to be an anti-gay measure.

Whether concerns over being hounded are valid or not, it seems that our democracy operates much better when we are willing to be open about our beliefs. Rather than hiding behind legalistic interpretations of regulations, standing up and being counted is a vibrant part of our debate. It frequently inspires a much more open dialogue as well as healthy resolutions.

Anti-disclosure advocates maintain a petition signature is like a vote, it should be kept secret (these days your vote really isn't secret, trust me). But a petition isn't a vote. It's an attempt to convince fellow citizens that we either need a new law or the laws we have are not good. It's your stand up and be counted moment.

And for once we have to trust that the rest of us will not act inappropriately once we hear your side.

Public Option

I am the farthest thing from an economists (although I have taken many many many economics classes) but it seems to me removing the anti-trust exemption from health care insurers still does nothing to create competition.

So, it's with delight that Senator Harry Reid has agreed to "consider" putting the public option back into the Senate Health Care bills.

Finally.

Animal Love

I just loved this article. That most Americans would "go the extra mile" for our beloved animals.

Love it.

Swift Boating in Seattle Port Commission Race

This is so disgusting I can't even post a picture!

A real estate developer is running against a community activist for Port Commission. Several weeks ago (ok, I admit it, I was listening to sports-talk radio) I heard an ad for the real estate developer, David Doud. The ad claimed his opponent, Rob Holland is a supporter of ACORN (the current non-profit every conservative loves to hate) and that Holland essentially mis-managed his finances because the State of Washington claimed he owed for an overpayment of unemployment insurance.

Just hearing the ad without even knowing the rebuttal facts made me furious. While the Port of Seattle has not been my favorite government agency (it has been riddled with corruption, racist police, and junket enjoying port commissioners for years), this ad was way and above what is necessary to win. And it does nothing about discussing the issues: how to deal with racist cops, how to keep traditional port industries such as shipping, fishing, and other maritime related businesses, and how to eliminate the corruption. And it attacked the character of someone based on national allegations of ACORN which in no manner whatsoever have been born out locally, plus almost everyone who has ever been on unemployment has been accidently overpaid by the state!

So finally, this ad and a mailer have made the news.

Turns out, indeed the overpayment was the State's mistake. And the appearance at an ACORN function was part of a community rally which almost every candidate for Port Commission except David Doud appeared.

I can only hope this type of Swift Boating backfires on Mr. Doud.

Signs of Economic Problems

Elliot Bay Book Company, an iconic book store in an old Seattle brick building is either going to downsize and move or go out of business.

"Bookies" will lament that this is another in the decade long epic battle between bricks and mortar independent book sellers and big box/Amazon retailers. Or they will say electronic media readers like Kindle are making books themselves obsolete.

I think this tale may have something to do with those struggles, but more to do with the current economy and the failure of government agencies in Seattle to understand the difficulties, the actual difficulties, of small businesses.

First, Elliot Bay is not a small independent book seller. Years ago the original owner sold the business to it's current owner who is well versed in marketing, book selling, and owning businesses. He owns two other book stores as well as several other retail operations. However, Elliot Bay is a different animal than the other two stores, one located in a smallish mall and the other is a used book store. Elliot Bay has been part of Seattle for over 30 years. It's a landmark.

But the City of Seattle has been on a mission to reduce automobile traffic, so finding parking in the Pioneer Square area takes obsessive zeal. Just darting out to buy a book is not that kind of obsession. And the location of the book store is a mere few blocks from the professional sports stadiums. Seattle Department of Transportation and the police make getting in and out of the neighborhood on a game day a navigational nightmare. And add to it last winter's debacle with the City of Seattle failing, no neglecting, no intentionally NOT plowing the streets for two weeks during a snowstorm (the key two weeks for holiday shopping when most book sellers make the bulk of their annual income) and the recipe for failure is written. Then of course, there is credit. The book store's credit (used to buy inventory) is tapped out and no lender wants to write a new loan (you know, those banks we bailed out?).

For all the talk by politicians that they want to help businesses, they really don't know what to do. So-called business lobbying groups, like the Chamber of Commerce really don't have small business interests at heart. They really represent their own professional staff and large mega-businesses, like, say Barnes and Noble who would be delighted to see Elliot Bay shutter it's windows. And politicians take money from the Chamber of Commerce's Political Action Committee, not from small time owners of little shops in Seattle. So the mayor and city council will wring their hands (it's an election year) about the loss of Elliot Bay, but really, nothing will get done.

But the story of Elliot Bay is applicable to every town and city in America right now. And sooner or later there will be shuttered windows and empty store fronts unless those in power in finance and in managing cities and towns figure out there are ways to help this economy and it ain't bailing out banks too big to fail. That really it's helping out small book stores so small they need to succeed.

Blowing Bubbles

The stock market gained to 10,000 this week, then had some sell off. But clearly Wall Street thinks this depression (oops, I mean recession) is over.

However, I think this piece is great on thinking through the fundamentals. In other words, the reasons to invest in stock still are not apparent.

Perhaps we are creating, yet again, another bubble?

Will Cap and Trade Work?

Before we all rush headstrong into cap and trade, it's time to pause and examine some of the basic premises. One of them is whether preserving forests far away from the emissions is actually impacting global climate change.

In a new report released today, Greenpeace is challenging the assumption that a power company (using coal for energy) in Indiana can purchase "rights" to a forest in Bolivia and all is then well with the coal plant's emissions. Countering the report are some conservation groups who have "adjusted their models," and believe preservation thousands of miles away will reduce carbon emissions.

Models are only as good as the inputted data and the analyst. And remember, models are what got us into the real estate/financial meltdown mess. Models are what always implodes the stock market. Models brought us clear cutting. We seem enamored with models, numbers, they appear oh-so scientific, so "sure." But, but, they really are only theories in numbers rather than narrative.

As we go onto the Next Big Issue after health care, global climate change, remember, be suspicious of models on all sides. Preservation of forests is a good thing, but will it help or is it a way for large scale emitters of carbon to absolve their responsibilities?

Wall Street Happy - Main Street Losing 1 Out of 20 Jobs

The financial system is broken. When headlines say things like Washington state is losing 1 out of 20 jobs (as in jobs vanished) yet Chase Manhattan, beneficiary of government bailout monies, reports earning huge profits and will award the largest bonuses, something is wrong. Wall Street celebrated today by going over 10,000.

Main street, however, isn't doing enough to let policy makers know the system is broken except for the lucky few in the financial industry. Where is the anger, the revolt, demanding better regulation and more commutarian financial services, which benefit those who make deposits, pay interest, and take risk in the stock market?

The system is broken.

It's Raining and the Baucus Bill Passes Committee

I am hoping there is no link between the rain storm and the fact the Senate Finance Committee passed the Health Insurance Reform Bill.

Health Insurance Reform?

As the Senate Finance Committee nears it's vote on health care "reform," it's important to wonder whether this proposed legislation will actually "reform" health care or merely mandate the uninsured increase the insurance pool and as a consequence hopefully decrease or stabilize insurance premiums.

What is lost in all of this is health care reform. How are we controlling costs? How are we insuring that health care, quality health care, is available to everyone?

My sense is, as this article suggests, is that health care reform is not happening. We are not looking at costs, at services, at availability.

So much for reform.

We're Talking Salmon

It's been over 10 years since the federal government declared several "runs" of salmon here in the Pacific Northwest threatened under the Endangered Species Act. Hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent in all sorts of salmon habitat restoration projects all over the Puget Sound region as well along the mainstem and tributaries of the Columbia River, both major salmon spawning areas. Hundreds of hours of conferences and seminars have been held. And literally whole stands of timber have been used to create the paper filed in litigation after litigation on salmon issues, much less the voluminous (and sometimes disingenuous) habitat conservation plans.

And yet, the Pacific Northwest, like much of the country, ravenously ate up land during the real estate boom, new developments with amenities like golf courses and even vineyards sprung up in desert lands, fed by water from the Columbia and other rivers. Miles and miles of pavement were laid to feed cul d' sacs and growing commuter populations. And no matter how well engineered to prevent massive run-offs, millions of gallons of storm water contaminated with God-knows-what, entered every watershed. The salmon continue to suffer.

Now, the Obama Administration, with great fanfare, announced it's salmon recovery plans. Which are much like the Bush Administration. No dams on the Snake River will be removed or decommissioned. And the requirements for habitat protections continue to be lame at best.

As wild salmon populations continue to decline, this once abundant anadromous fish is slowly becoming a prisoner of politics. All the money spent by hydro utilities, timber companies, municipalities, and state governments on habitat restoration is not going to fix the causes of salmon declines nor enhance their restoration. At some point, then, rather than continuing the charade that we are trying to prevent the extinction of salmon in the Pacific Northwest, perhaps we really need to begin the conversation about what extinction really means.

Anyone seen a Passenger pigeon recently?

Babe Ruth

Now this is very cool!

War Memorials in National Preserves

The US Supreme Court heard a case about a war memorial that has been in the Mojave desert since 1934 when private citizens erected a memorial to everyone who has died in a war.

Of course, once the land became part of the federal preserve, issues concerning the separation of church and state bubbled up. In litigation, the US District Court (and a decision upholding that ruling by the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals) required the cross associated with the memorial to be removed. Subsequently the Department of Interior transfered ownership of the small site back into private ownership and did not appeal the decision by the appellate court.

Today's hearing was more technical, with the ACLU challenging the transfer of the land.

Seems to me with a major war in Afghanistan, an economy still in floundering, health care reform now a joke, and major environmental issues to worry about, this seems rather insignificant. While I am sympathetic to people who don't like to see crosses on or around public spaces, it is, truly, something we see on a daily basis. Can we not worry about other stuff before we begin to take this on?

On another note, apparently Justice Sotomayor has asked more questions in three days of hearings that Justice Thomas has since he was sworn in in 1991. Not that I think asking questions is either good or bad or even demonstrates a curious mind, but I just found that fact interesting!

Banking's Deaf

In today's New York Times is an article about pre-paid debit cards, or cash cards. How this is the new way for banks and the financial industry to ding owners of these cards (and oh, surprise, surprise, surprise, most people who have these cards are unable to open accounts at banks and are usually poor!). Activation fees, monthly fees, fees for using ATMs, fees if they go over the amounts on their cards. Yikes!

The financial industry is deaf. They clearly can not hear that we are more than fed up. Or maybe the problem is we're not mad enough.

Nature and People

I thought this article was spot on regarding the National Parks.

The more we disassociate people from nature, making nature "something else," the more likely we continue to make poor decisions about managing our Earth.

While I am a huge advocate for National Parks, they have become not much more than amazing museums for meticulously preserved nature. The thing is, nature is very dynamic and includes human interactions with it.

Rio 2016!

Despite heavy lobbying from even President Obama, Chicago was rejected in it's bid for the 2016 Olympics. Rather, those summer games were awarded to Rio de Janeiro, the first time the Olympic Games will be in South America.

In this country there is a lingering debate whether President Obama should have gone to Copenhagen, Denmark, to lobby for his hometown. After it was announced Rio won the bid, a pundit who is on the opposite side of the political spectrum from President Obama commented that it is appropriate for a President to advocate for commercial interests in his country. And I would agree with that. Unfortunately, the Olympics have been reduced to a commercial interest.

Having been the the summer Olympics in Los Angeles in 1984, and watching every single Olympiad since birth, I will say they continue to be amazing events where once every four years, for two weeks, the world is able to stop and glorify amazing feats of athleticism. Despite all the corporate sponsorships and mega-money made by athletes from endorsements, the events are still able to capture our collective imaginations. Now I find myself watching the less glamorous events, such as the equestrian, where rider and animal become one, gliding over jumps, trying to match grace and time. But of course, like every other sports junkie, I can not resist Michael Phelps or Dana Torres, the amazing marathoners or the bikini clad beach volleyball spikers.

I can not wait to watch the opening ceremonies from Rio. Congratulations!

National Parks as Our Nation's Commons

It's an interesting idea, our National Parks as our nation's commons. But I think, contrary to what the author thinks, it really only works on the National Mall, in Washington, DC.

Anyway, here is the link to the article.